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Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26915/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-16T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

Lead Time: 56.78 hour(s)
Difference: 3.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-09-14T17:06Z

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